A U.N. report on Mar. 2, directly accused Russian forces of committing war crimes in Syria by using these tactics and there is significant evidence that the Kremlin is deliberately carrying out indiscriminate strikes as it supports Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad’s brutal battle against anti-regime forces. Assad’s forces stand accused of similar crimes, including using Russian-made Mi-17 transport helicopters to drop now-infamous improvised “barrel bombs” over opposition-controlled cities and towns. All of this calls into question the actual combat utility of employing Il-76MDs as bombers in even low-level conflicts.
In addition, the Il-76MDs would be very vulnerable platforms for these kinds of operations, especially during low-level strafing runs, in all but the most permissive environments. Small countries, as well as non-state actors, have steadily shown their ability to acquire and field surprisingly capable surface-to-air missile systems, in recent years. The proliferation of both shoulder-fired man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, and longer-range systems has been particularly pronounced in Syria, where Russia is heavily engaged, and Yemen.
All told, the countries that have actually employed cargo aircraft as bombers in recent years seem to have done so more out of necessity than a clear military utility. Russia may continue to train its Il-76MD crews to carry out these operations, but it remains to be seen if they will ever put these tactics to use operationally.
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